The Premier League – it's famed as the most wonderfully unpredictable league in world football. Who could have foreseen Leicester's staggering triumph in 2016? The same goes for Newcastle United's title challenge capitulation in '96 and Sergio Aguero's famous last-gasp winner in 2012. Of course, these upsets are all well and good if you've no vested interest – but what about us, the predictors?
This guide will offer nothing but the best guidance, shortcuts and insider knowledge for you in your future predicting exploits. Want to get one over on your mates by displaying your superior knowledge of the game? Read on. Even if you're not into football, here at Predict Addict we can help you fake it till you make it...
This might sound like the most painfully obvious piece of advice we could give you, but there really is no substitute for getting first-hand experience of a football match. With it, you should hopefully be able to get a feel of a team's capabilities, their limitations and their tactical deficiencies/strengths. But if you're not blessed with the footballing intuition of Pep Guardiola – and, let's face it, none of us are – or if you simply can't be bothered investing hours upon hours of your time in preparation for predicting, fear not! There is a wealth of shortcuts available to you, shortcuts such as...
In recent years, football clubs, pundits and predictors alike have turned towards quantifiable data to give themselves the edge over their rivals. There are the more obvious bits of data – statistics like 'goals scored,' 'possession,' 'number of attacks' etc. – which might offer you limited success in the world of predicting. But in order to gauge the probability of any given team winning or losing a football match, you have to look a little deeper. Consider looking at statistics such a team's 'XG' (expected goals); this statistic shows you how well a team has performed in front of goal with reference to how difficult their opportunities have been. In this, the metric aims to eliminate the impact of luck from its data. This is just one example of a helpful stat; there are hundreds more. And the best thing is, you don't even have to know about football to use them – all you need is a bit of patience. Statistics may sound daunting at first, but with a little bit of effort they are a consistently effective way of predicting scorelines and results.
Statistics are helpful, but you should always consider them alongside the circumstances of the teams involved in the match. Imagine that Liverpool are playing Burnley at Anfield, their home ground. On face value, Liverpool - with the home advantage, superior league position and more impressive squad - might seem like the obvious choice. But what if their illustrious front three of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohammed Salah have all been ruled out with injury? Changing circumstances like these can drastically affect the outcome of a fixture. Injuries, form, fatigue – they can all swing the result of a game completely. Make sure you're up to date with both team's circumstances, right up to kick-off time.
The above is the holy trinity of predicting. Now that you're armed with all the necessary info, you're ready to dive headfirst into Premier League predicting, right here at Predict Addict. May the best predictor win!